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flyupsidedown

When Schiff speaks . . . rorap should listen

You know, the problem you have dismissing what he says is that asia and foreign markets are his specialty.  He knows of what he speaks.  Plus the fact that he is consistently calling it before it happens for at least the last 7-8 years.  You can argue with 'success' or you can . . . listen.

flyupsidedown

Outsider

Looks like Schiff is part of the Failure Caucus.

Who's rooting for the economy to tank again? These guys.

Quote:
This crowd is downright hostile to the optimists. I spent some time on the phone this morning with Michael Darda, an economist at MKM Partners. Darda is no squish. He used to write a lot for the National Review. But when he tells conservative audiences he's expecting the economy to grow at a 4 percent annual rate through the end of 2010, the reaction is frequently disbelief. Darda bases his conclusions largely on his reading of leading indicators, credit markets, and past performance in the wake of recessions—not on who controls the White House. Yes, taxes are likely to rise in 2011, and the Fed will have to tighten monetary policy. But that's no reason to be bearish now, he argues. "The real risk is in being too negative."

That risk is highest for the political division of the Failure Caucus. The conventional wisdom on the right holds that President Obama and his Democratic allies in Congress are setting themselves up for a big fall through their overreaching. But I'd argue that it's the Republican Party, which was always on the side of greater growth, higher stock prices, and more wealth, that has painted itself into a corner. Many Republicans opposed the initial bailouts because they were conducted by an unpopular Republican president in conjunction with a Democratic Congress. (In Todd Purdum's Vanity Fair article, former Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson conspicuously praises congressional Democrats and conspicuously says little about congressional Republicans.) Then they doubled down with virtually uniform opposition to the Obama stimulus bill, which had been watered down to attract Republican votes. In order for Republicans to be vindicated politically, the bailouts and the stimulus—and the economy at large—must fail. Thus considered, every positive data point, every sign of stabilization in the housing market, every rise in the S&P 500, every TARP repayment, is something of a rebuke. As the clouds part, the historic party of economic sunshine is in the strange position of praying for rain.


Read the whole article here:

http://www.slate.com/id/2226921/
flyupsidedown

You can find any number of "economists" who will give you their opinion.  What did Michael Darda predict back in 2003?  Did he warn people of the looming dot-com bubble bust?  After that, did he warn people of the fed induced easy credit that inflated the realestate bubble?  Did he warn people to get out of the 'financials', sparing them the banking bust?  Did he advise people to put their money into hard assets like gold, silver, commodities and mining companies that have since grown very nicely?  And did he warn of the falling dollar and advise to get out of the USD into appreciating foreign currencies and foreign Asian markets where growth is 2 to 3 times higher than the US?

It is easy to pontificate and sound the 'positive' rally of a growing US market.  I would love to be able to keep my money in the US and watch it grow but facts being what they are, we are more likely headed for high inflation and the probability of hyperinflation a greater likelihood.

All I can say is put your money where your post is.  For my part I am going to follow the lead of one who has called since 2003 and called it on the record.  Even Obama is hedging by saying we may be headed for a double dip recession.  


You might want to read some critism of your boy at;
http://stefanmikarlsson.blogspot....05/11/michael-darda-vs-truth.html

Friday, November 04, 2005
Michael Darda vs. the Truth

One of the most laughable claims this year came in today's NRO-column by Michael Darda who claimed that:

"the ratio of average home prices to personal incomes is not out of whack with historical norms. In fact, despite rising off the lows of the 1990s, the ratio remains below historical averages."

Huh? In the last Flow of Funds report for the second quarter the ratio of housing values to disposable income was a record 204% ($18433.1 billion/$9017.8 billion) , compared to the 1980-1999 average of 143%.

Needless to say, his column contains numerous other errors too.

Like when he tries to claim that personal income growth was 6.3%. This is true if you refer to nominal gross personal income, but a more relevant measure is real disposable personal income. And because of the surge in tax revenues that NRO is so happy about, nominal disposable income rose only 5.3% and because of the 3.8% increase in the PCE deflator (For the sake of the argument it is accepted as a accurate price gauge), real disposable income rose only 1.5%. That he "forgets" to adjust income growth for inflation is pretty remarkable given the fact that just two paragraphs later he himself emphasize the need to adjust for inflation . . .
Kestrel

A broken watch is correct twice a day.
flyupsidedown

That . . . is your sole answer?  That's it?
flyupsidedown



flyupsidedown

flyupsidedown


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